Bitcoin Soars: Is It Time to Buy Gold?

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8 Views October 3, 2024

In the rapidly evolving world of finance, Bitcoin has recently made headlines with an extraordinary surge in its value, skyrocketing from approximately $67,000 on November 4th to over $90,000 just the other day, showing no signs of slowing downThis astronomical rise has sparked curiosity and concern among investors looking for alternative assets amidst shifting market sentiments.

Simultaneously, there has been a notable influx of capital flowing away from U.STreasury bondsThe yield on the 10-year U.STreasury has approached 4.5%, with predictions that it might reach the 5% mark once againThis flight from traditional safe-haven investments like government bonds indicates a potential realignment of investor confidence towards more volatile assets.

In this changing landscape, American investors seem to be engaged in a form of financial alchemy, capable of transforming immense wealth into new opportunities, while at the same time potentially moderating inflation through these strategic shifts

This raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional economic measures in the current context.

Reflecting on broader economic trends, since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the nation has consistently enjoyed increasing trade surplusesThis influx of foreign exchange has surged into China, exchanged for renminbi, which has been amplified through credit creation by 3 to 5 times, leading to a significant rise in M1 money supply and consequently, inflationary pressures.

Between 2000 and 2008, M1 recorded annual growth rates exceeding 10%. However, during periods of peak Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, the CPI itself only reached a maximum of 8%, averaging around 3%. The mechanisms behind such dissonance between monetary supply and consumer price inflation are complex and intriguing.

A critical factor in this phenomenon lies in the direction of capital flows.

Much of the available capital has gravitated towards real estate and the stock market, while the CPI computation weighs heavily on essentials like food and transportation

Consequently, we have witnessed a significant rise in asset prices without a corresponding increase in consumer prices, an observation that resonates with the metaphor of a "reservoir" where liquidity accumulates away from general consumption.

Over the decades, the issuance of U.Sdollars has surged too, yet the U.Shas managed to absorb excess dollars through Treasury bonds, leading to remarkable stability in the domestic CPI.

However, this situation is now under strain as many nations grow wary of U.Sdebt, fearing a bubble in TreasuriesThis wariness may encourage the international community to turn to the renminbi, as China gradually unveils more of its currency on the global market.

Conversely, the "reservoir" of dollars may soon be forcibly released, flooding the market with liquidity and leading to rampant asset purchasing

The implications of such actions include skyrocketing asset prices and persistently high inflation in the U.SFor instance, the latest CPI figures revealed a mere 2.6% increase, a figure that many now dismiss as misleading and far from reality.

To tackle the mounting inflation, conventional measures appear ineffective; thus, unorthodox strategies might come into play.

A radical proposal worth considering is the creation of a $10 trillion coin as a form of government debtGiven the current scale of U.STreasury obligations, creating just 35 coins could sufficeAfter minting these coins, the challenge would be to render them obsolete, a relatively simpler challenge

alefox

However, the global market is not naive; it recognizes the inherent risks associated with U.SdebtWho would be willing to assume that risk?

Therefore, traditional methods are inadequate, and it is crucial to devise strategies that are not immediately discernible to the average observer.

In recent years, the U.Sstock market has witnessed ambitious projects, such as plans for Mars colonization—initiatives projected many years into the futureWhile nations like China and Russia excel technologically in space research, others are fast losing confidence in America's space capabilities, especially in light of China's rapid technological advancements.

As Russia aims to sever ties with the International Space Station, it signals a recognition of the limitations in U.S

space technology; if an elementary space station remains unmanageable, then claiming future endeavors like Mars missions becomes dubious.

In addition to these ambitions, concepts like the Metaverse and artificial intelligence are also gaining traction.

Presently, three companies within the U.Smarket hold valuations exceeding $3 trillion: Nvidia, Microsoft, and AppleTheir price-to-earnings ratios stand at 68, 35, and 36 respectively, while their price-to-book ratios are 62, 11, and 60.

In stark contrast, leading Chinese tech firms boast lower price-to-earnings ratios, particularly noticeable in their price-to-book ratios

For example, CATL's ratio is 5, while BYD and SMIC fall below this benchmarkIn comparison, major U.Sfirms average 2.7, Hikvision stands at 3.8, and North China Technical Innovations at 8.4. Among Chinese tech companies valued at over $100 billion, only two software firms exceed a price-to-book ratio of 10, highlighting a vast disparity with U.Svaluations.

The Chinese stock market comprises nearly 5,400 companies, with only 16 exhibiting price-to-book ratios exceeding 60, and most of these are consistently unprofitable firmsThis stark contrast emphasizes the vast differences in asset valuations between the U.Sand China.

These disparities raise critical questions regarding the underlying motivations: why are Chinese speculative stocks, primarily valued in the tens of billions, vastly overshadowed by their American peers that boast valuations in trillions? The answer lies in the necessity for considerable repositories of liquidity to accommodate the massive influx of dollars—spaces occupied by real estate, stock markets, and notably, Bitcoin.

In the current climate, it has become pressing for U.S

stocks, particularly large-cap stocks, to manifest volatility.The market's price-to-book ratio has soared to over four times that of A-shares, and leading U.Sfirms surpass their A-share counterparts by a factor of ten.

The overarching goal for the U.Sstock market is clear: it must generate substantial volatility, as failure to do so would present serious challenges regarding where excess dollars will be allocated.

Should U.Sstocks falter, a considerable portion of capital could shift towards commodities and gold, risking uncontrollable inflation throughout the economy.

In an environment where the dollar system falters, the potential price surge for gold remains uncertain, as gold and the dollar are fundamentally adversarial

Consequently, the U.Ssuppresses gold prices, while China’s central bank actively accumulates gold reserves.

After maintaining a six-month pause on gold purchases, the recent downturn in gold prices might prompt the central bank to reignite its gold-buying strategy to counterbalance the stock market and the Bitcoin phenomenon.

Currently, BlackRock is fervently promoting Bitcoin as a means to entice additional investments in the cryptocurrency, as confidence wanes in U.STreasuriesThe investment giant seeks a new instrument to attract capital sidelined from traditional bonds.

In recent market events, BlackRock’s pivotal role in driving Bitcoin's popularity echoes past scenarios where U.S

stocks were glorified, though fraudulent reports of performance—like those at AMD—surfaceNotably, 11% of Nvidia's orders were linked to AMD, raising questions about the integrity of Nvidia's financials.

As discussions around AI technology seem to plateau, fresh tools must emerge to take the baton, and Bitcoin seems to be emerging as a primary candidate.

At present, BlackRock stands as the leading holder of Bitcoin, effectively serving as a major player in the U.Sstock marketThis mirrors the collective roles of China’s central financial entities, social security funds, and public mutual fundsHence, BlackRock's foray into Bitcoin optimization parallels their strategies in driving tech giants like Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple.

This cycle of Bitcoin's ascendancy arguably began around July 2020, coinciding with a low point in U.S

Treasury yields

Is this merely coincidental, or is there a deliberate orchestration?

One can correlate the movements of the 10-year U.STreasury yields with Bitcoin's trajectory, observing that as Treasuries experienced sell-offs, there was a concurrent bullish push for BitcoinThis correlation holds true over both the long term and more immediate short-term periods.

Such behaviors are less about proactive strategies and more about reactive moves.As more funds express skepticism towards Treasury bonds, alternative schemes emerge to entice that capital—reflecting a reactive approach.

Yet, the sustainability of this gamble remains uncertain; how much longer can this scheme endure?

In an era inundated with scams, the metaphor of con artists using soda cans to stage winning ticket schemes serves as a reminder—initially captivating, but ultimately transparent to seasoned observers who won’t fall for tricks.

With awareness heightened, when investors come to view the asset valuations with a more critical lens, what steps will they take next?

The response is likely to be swift: liquidate their positions, moving towards high-quality assets

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